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Forecast Trading Group

forecast.altavra.com

Open A Futures and/or Forex Trading Account.

Manager Name: Forecast Trading Group
Program Name: Forecast Trading Program
Minimum Investment: 250,000 USD
Strategy: Discretionary, Short-Term, Fundamental
Markets: Agricultural, Softs, Natural Resources
Restrictions: QEP
Disclosure Document: Call
Management Agreement: Call
Download Page: Download & Save: Forecast Trading Group
Print Page: Printable Version: Abraham Trading Company
Disclosure Statement: Open

View The Performance Report for

Forecast Trading Group

includes free access to the managed futures database

Managed Futures CTA Report: Forecast Trading Group

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This program is only available for Qualified Eligible Persons (QEP). What is QEP?

PLEASE NOTE: ALTAVRA does NOT charge a load, upfront or initial fee on any account.

Online Account Application: open.altavra.com / Account Forms: forms.altavra.com / Manager Shortcut: forecast.altavra.com

Program Description: Trading Approach

 

Forecast Trading Group's style is that of a global macro-trader, rather than a systematic, black-box dealer, and profits can be achieved in both up- or down-markets. Since trading is discretionary, the results are non-correlated. Forecast Trading Group relies primarily on fundamental analysis with the support of technical analysis. Forecast Trading Groups Principal receives and weighs analytical inputs from both external and in-house sources. These might include supply-and-demand reports, crop surveys, and meteorological forecasts but Forecast Trading Group stresses both timeliness and accuracy. The Principal applies his significant market experience and discretion as a fundamental trader in interpreting the potential impact of these varied inputs when initiating positions or managing open positions.


Forecast Trading Group believes that unanticipated changes in weather patterns, such as droughts or freezes, or singular weather events, such as hurricanes, can be an important factor in determining the price of such commodities as Corn, Soybeans, Heating Oil, Natural Gas, Orange Juice, Coffee and others. Forecast Trading Group, then, seeks to secure the most accurate weather forecasts available which, when combined with prompt analysis and interpretation, provide a competitive advantage.


Commodity prices are also affected by macro-conditions and international events. These might include foreign exchange rate movements; supply-and-demand in major economies such as China; interest rates and credit conditions, and political crises. Forecast Trading Group attempts to incorporate these macro-economic influences by including markets such as Gold and some Financials, to access new opportunities and as an overlay or hedge of positions in other commodities.


Forecast Trading Group's process of generating trade signals begins with the fundamental analysis of data, with consideration given to market conditions, in an attempt to identify situations where short-term potential reward is likely to be in excess of risk. Internal and external research is reviewed in a daily morning conference to identify new trading opportunities but also to monitor the ongoing viability of open positions.


The trading program is diverse and invests in both futures and options contracts. As a means of limiting near-term swings in profit and loss, options are frequently used in directional trades intended to take advantage of intermediate- and longer-term price movements. Thus option contracts are predominantly purchased, not sold, so that the level of risk is clearly defined at the time the position is initiated. Separately, options contracts may be used to limit the risk on open futures positions. For instance, puts might be purchased to limit the downside on a long futures position ahead of a scheduled announcement that might be a market-mover.


Certain commodity prices, and trading opportunities in those commodities, might be seasonal. For instance, heating oil is a more active market during the winter months; Chicago-listed Grain contracts tend to be busier during the North American growing season. The make-up of Forecast Trading Group's portfolio, then, may also be impacted by seasonality but there is no obvious seasonality in the program's performance.


Forecast may also be flat. In the event that there is no perceived trading opportunity, the Principal may decide to stand aside from the markets until conditions change and a new opportunity emerges.


As a fundamental trader, Forecast Trading Group's return stream is atypical. Forecast seeks major market-moves, which may occur only infrequently, but uses strategies to maintain market participation while limiting the exposure of clients' equity. Many trades (an estimated 75% of all positions) are short-term, defined as less than three days, since they are initiated either to take advantage of a one-off event, or to test a particular strategy with a limited commitment. Intermediate trades (greater than three days but not exceeding one week) account approximately for another 15% of all trades. Typically, only 10% of all trades are open for longer than one week. Since many of the commodity futures contracts traded by Forecast Trading Group represent a relatively small dollar value, there is a high volume of contracts traded and, based on prior years‟ experience, clients might expect 5,000 round turns per annum for every 1,000,000 USD of equity invested.


Forecast Trading Group believes that a long-term commitment to its trading approach is necessary for profitable trading opportunities. Forecast Trading Group suggests that prospective clients refrain from opening an account unless that can commit a minimum of two years to the investment. However, Forecast does not employ a lock-up and client accounts may be closed at any time. Clients can participate through a managed account in Forecast Trading Group, which offers the benefit of real–time transparency via the client's Futures Commission Merchant and daily statements available by e-mail.


Implementation of Trading Approaches
Forecast Trading Group, from time to time, may change or refine the trading systems employed to manage its clients' accounts as a result of ongoing research and development. Clients will not be informed of these changes as they may occur. Forecast Trading Group's sole trading principal, James R. Brunn, reviews and maintains discretion over all trading parameters.


James Brunn will select the contracts and markets which will be followed, the contracts and markets which will be actively traded and the contract months in which positions will be maintained. James Brunn will also determine when to roll over a position (i.e., liquidate a position which is about to expire and initiate a new position in a more distant contract month). These types of decisions require consideration of, among other things, the volatility of a particular market, the pattern of price movements (both interday and intraday), open interest, trading volume, changes in spread relationships between various contract months and between various contracts and overall portfolio balance and risk exposure. With respect to the timing and execution of trades, James Brunn may also rely to some extent on the judgment of others, such as floor brokers. No assurance can be made that consideration will be given to any or all of the foregoing factors by James Brunn with regard to every trade for an account managed by Forecast Trading Group or that consideration of any of such factors in a particular situation will lessen the account‟s risk of loss. Clients should be aware that such decisions may involve a substantial element of judgment and the unavailability of James Brunn to make such decisions could materially impair the operation of the trading approach.


Along with the subjective decision-making authority reserved for James Brunn, Forecast Trading Group also maintains certain risk management procedures for determining the appropriate quantity of contracts to be traded for an account of a given size, whether opening, adjusting or closing a position. The size of positions will be determined based on such factors as market volatility; prices of commodities; amount of risk; potential return and margin requirements.


Risk controls will be applied at both the "Position" and "Portfolio" levels:
::
Pre-determined stops will always be applied on open positions, which are subject to constant monitoring. Such stops may be based on considerations of profit or loss, or technical analysis.

 

:: Forecast Trading Group will attempt to limit correlations between open positions, so that all positions will not be affected equally by an unforeseen, adverse event.

 

:: Total Margin-to-Equity will be calculated and maintained at less than 20%. Forecast Trading Group believes that Margin-to-Equity is a reasonable proxy of risk, providing a useful, shorthand method of monitoring open positions.


:: When appropriate, particularly during periods when large positions in several commodities are being maintained within the portfolio, the Principal will ask for measurements of Value at Risk, based on standard deviation calculations on the underlying commodity prices. The Principal will ensure that the Value at Risk is within an acceptable percentage level of a client's equity.


:: If the monthly cumulative loss of the portfolio exceeds 10% within any one calendar month, all open positions will be closed and the Principal will reassess the analysis and methodology before re-entering the markets.


Forecast Trading Group employs the risk management techniques described above in an effort to reduce risk. No assurance can be given that such techniques will be effective, or to the client's benefit, and such techniques may actually result in lost opportunities or realized trading losses.

 

Technical vs. Fundamental Trading

Futures traders typically rely on either “technical” or “fundamental” analysis, or a combination of both, for their trading decisions. Technical analysis is based upon the theory that a study of the historical behavior of the markets themselves will provide a means of anticipating future prices. Technical analysis of the markets generally includes a study of, among other things, actual daily, weekly and monthly price fluctuations, volume variations and changes in open interest. Technical traders frequently utilize charts and computers for analysis of these items, which may include a series of mathematical measurements and calculations designed to monitor market activity.
 

Fundamental analysis, on the other hand, relies on the evaluation of factors external to the market itself in predicting future prices. Such factors might include weather, government policies, domestic and foreign political and economic events and changing trade prospects. Fundamental analysis is premised on the concept that market prices frequently may not reflect the real value of a commodity interest contact, although such value will eventually determine price levels. By analyzing underlying economic factors, a fundamental trader hopes to predict future market trends as price levels and actual value move into parity.

 

Potential General Advantages of Managed Futures

In these changing times, investors are looking for new ways to achieve their financial goals, taking into account profit potential and risk. Increasingly, investors have been choosing alternative investments, such as Managed Futures, as part of a well-diversified portfolio.


The industry of managed futures represents a group of professional money managers known as “commodity trading advisors”. Through the use of global futures and forward markets as the underlying investments, these money managers trade client assets on a discretionary basis. There are many types of vehicles in which one can invest in managed futures including public funds, private placements and individual managed accounts.


Managed futures offer investors the opportunity for greater diversity through increased exposure to international investments and non-financial sectors on over 100 futures and forward markets worldwide. These investments are not typically represented in traditional stock and bond portfolios. In addition, because of the low correlation of agricultural, energy, and certain other types of commodity futures with more traditional assets classes, i.e. stocks and bonds, adding a managed futures component to a diversified investment portfolio may decrease portfolio risk while enhancing overall portfolio returns. Furthermore, the very nature of futures trading allows participation on both the buy and sell sides of the commodities markets (long and short), affording investors the potential for profit (and commensurate risk) in any economic or political environment.


Prospective clients should be aware that stocks, bonds and managed futures are very different types of investments, each involving unique investment considerations and risk, including but not limited to liquidity, security, pricing, duration, structure of returns, tax features, leverage and volatility. For example, trading in futures, forward and options involves a greater degree of risk than investing in stocks and bonds due to, among other things, a greater degree of leverage and volatility. Unlike bonds, for example, there is no guarantee of a fixed rate of return or of the return of principal when investing in commodity interests.
 

Management Information: James R. Brunn

James R. Brunn, is the Managing Director of Forecast Trading Group, LLC. James Brunn is listed with the CFTC as a principal and is registered as an associated person of Forecast Trading Group effective November 29, 2001. He is also an associate member of the NFA. James Brunn is responsible for all trading decisions for Forecast Trading Group. From March 1997 to December 2007, James Brunn was listed as a Principal and registered as an Associated Person of James Brunn Associates, Inc. His career has spanned over 20 years in senior management and trading positions with international banking institutions. In the positions he held, James Brunn was responsible for the supervision and risk management oversight of other traders employed at the banks.


At Banque Francaise du Commerce Exterieur (October 1994 to December 1996), James Brunn functioned as a market maker in the major currencies in addition to strategic trading. As Chief Dealer for Credit Industriel et Commercial, a French banking corp. (April 1992 to May 1993) and as a proprietary trader at Standard Chartered Bank (June 1993 to August 1994), he worked on an exotic currency desk and he helped to establish a European Monetary System (EMS) trading desk. He also developed the guidelines used by the bank for strategic position taking.


James Brunn was the Chief Dealer at Royal Bank of Scotland from April 1989 to April 1992. His responsibilities included strategic positioning for the bank and the development of risk management oversight and credit policies. Products traded included major currency and cross currency pairs as well as all OTC treasury interest rate and currency products and derivatives. James Brunn also served as Chief Dealer of Foreign Exchange from May 1985 to April 1989 at Banque Arab International Investments. He was responsible for Strategic trading decisions for the bank's proprietary account and the spot trading of major US dollar positions. James Brunn's responsibilities included the development and implementation of programs to hedge currency risk assumed by the bank's money market operations.


James Brunn began his trading career at Lloyds Bank Plc. (“Lloyds”) where he worked from October 1978 to May 1985. At Lloyds he served as Senior Foreign Exchange Dealer and established the EMS trading desk. In that position, he was also responsible for the spot and forward books of numerous European and commonwealth currencies. While at Lloyds, he spent time on the floor of the New York Futures Exchange as a registered floor broker.

 

The descriptions above are from the manager’s disclosure document.

 

THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES, OPTIONS AND OFF-EXCHANGE FOREX CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL.  PAST RESULTS ARE NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.  PLEASE READ THE CTA'S RISK DISCLOSURE DOCUMENT CAREFULLY BEFORE INVESTING MONEY. 

 

Disclosure Statement       Download PageDownload & Save: Forecast Trading Group       Print Page Printable Version: Abraham Trading Company

 

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THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. PAST RESULTS ARE NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THIS MATERIAL HAS BEEN PREPARED BY A SALES OR TRADING EMPLOYEE OR AGENT OF ALTAVRA AND IS, OR IS IN THE NATURE OF A SOLICITATION. THIS MATERIAL IS NOT A RESEARCH REPORT PREPARED BY AN ALTAVRA RESEARCH DEPARTMENT. YOU AGREE THAT YOU ARE AN EXPERIENCED USER OF THE FINANCIAL MARKETS, CAPABLE OF MAKING INDEPENDENT TRADING DECISIONS, AND AGREE THAT YOU ARE NOT, AND WILL NOT RELY SOLELY ON THIS DOCUMENT IN MAKING TRADING DECISIONS. (ALTAVRA.CO/RISK)

THIS CONTENT AND ALL OF ITS LINKS ARE FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY, AND IS CURRENT ONLY AS OF THE DATE(S) HEREOF. IT DOES NOT CONSTITUTE A SOLICITATION FOR ANY CTA OR TRADING PROGRAM, AND THE INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE WITHOUT NOTICE. THE FIGURES CONTAINED HEREIN WERE OBTAINED OR COMPILED FROM INFORMATION PROVIDED BY THE CTA, TRADER OR THEIR REPRESENTATIVES. NEITHER ALTAVRA NOR ANY OF ITS AFFILIATES OR EMPLOYEES MAKES ANY ENDORSEMENT OR REPRESENTATION AS TO ITS ACCURACY, VALIDITY OR COMPLETENESS. THE INFORMATION HAS NOT BEEN INDEPENDENTLY VERIFIED AND THEREFORE CANNOT BE GUARANTEED. WHILE ALTAVRA MAY PROVIDE INVESTORS WITH CTA ANALYSIS, ALTAVRA DOES NOT PROVIDE “DUE DILIGENCE” ON AN INVESTOR’S BEHALF AND IS NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR A CUSTOMER’S INVESTMENT DECISIONS.

NO OFFER OR SOLICITATION MAY BE MADE PRIOR TO REVIEW OF THE CTA’S CURRENT DISCLOSURE DOCUMENT (
FORMS.ALTAVRA.COM), WHICH INVESTORS SHOULD READ CAREFULLY PRIOR TO INVESTING. INVESTORS MAY ALSO WISH TO CONSULT THEIR LEGAL, TAX AND INVESTMENT ADVISORS TO DETERMINE WHETHER AN INVESTMENT IS APPROPRIATE IN LIGHT OF THE INVESTOR’S RISK TOLERANCE, INVESTMENT OBJECTIVES AND FINANCIAL SITUATION.

ALL FUTURES AND OPTIONS TRADING INCLUDING MANAGED FUTURES IS SPECULATIVE, INVOLVES A HIGH DEGREE OF RISK AND IS SUITABLE ONLY FOR PERSONS WHO CAN ASSUME THE RISK OF LOSS IN EXCESS OF THEIR MARGIN DEPOSIT. NO REPRESENTATION OR ASSURANCE IS MADE THAT ANY CTA OR TRADING PROGRAM WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE ITS OBJECTIVES, BENCHMARKS OR TARGETED RETURNS OR THAT ANY INVESTOR WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE A PROFIT OR WILL BE ABLE TO AVOID INCURRING SUBSTANTIAL LOSSES.

 
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